In the times of a global pandemic we’ve been pulled out of our much loved daily routines. This is disturbing. We’re starting to confront the unknown and that makes us uncomfortable. So far the authorities haven’t been of much help to control the outbreak. Eastern societies seem to be better equipped to react to the pandemic with a centralized totalitarian approach. Our western democracies appear less capable and willing to interfere with individual lives in significant ways. That might have to change.

When we analyze, what we know about this disease, then we realize that there’s little new here: it’s a virus that can be deadly, especially for the elderly and the part of the population with a compromised health. The global population hasn’t built an immunity yet. The virus appears to be spreading even when infected people are asymptomatic. In many cases the sickness is mild. So nothing new here.

But in a world with globalized supply chains and frequent travel around the globe, the spread is unprecedented fast.

While we are able to test for the virus, there is no cure. We have to live through the pandemic. The reason we feel we need to slow the spread of the virus is to optimize our hospital resources for the most needy patients. But CDC has said that the number of infected patients will be the same over time, with or without curfews. The stopping of gatherings of people will only shape the curve of infected people over time – it won’t change the amount of people who will contract the disease. Models predict that only once 2/3rd of the entire population has contracted the disease, will the spread subside. This is because the virus is believed to infect 2-3 new people per infected person. So once 2/3rd have had the disease and have built immunity, the virus only finds less then one new person to infect and hence the spread will fade over time.

There will be deaths along the way while the global population is building immunity. Lots of them. The newly built immunity for this particular corona virus is believed to carry forward for a couple of years in each person, but not a lifetime. The virus appears to disproportionally be fatal for the older part of the population.

With a non-empathic look at the disease one could say: so nature does nature: Survival of the fittest. Nature has evolved a new pathogen that is released in an accelerated fashion due to our self-invented modern, fast-paced and global lives.

But even that isn’t new. When the white man came to the Inuits in Alaska, their population suffered a devastating blow: they lost 90% or more than 50 million people of their population due to the lack of immunity against common western diseases like the measles, influenza or smallpox. Radical societal changes followed with the dwindling population.

I hope the global societies will fare better today, and from the mortality rate we estimate for the corona virus that definitely appears plausible. But we must remember that the mechanisms for an even worse disease outbreak are in place.

In nature that’s nothing new: the so called hog cycle applied to our species is nature’s way of balancing populations. This time we are the pigs. Diseases will trim the shape and size of the age pyramid of the human population. Nine billion people, globally connected are a large petri dish.

In the meantime practice good hygene by washing hands thoroughly and frequently, eat well (nutrients), sleep lots (immune system), take good care of pre-existing conditions, and take your flu shots. Then: Don’t live in fear. – It’s not worth it.

Accepting the fact that mankind is ill-equipped to deal with abstract threats and impersonal propabilities can make your life less depressing.