When you work in the computer technology field, as I do, it is sometimes hard to see the groundbreaking changes, the computer world is undergoing, since you’re just too close. Constant change is what you experience at work every day, so the major technology shifts are sometimes hard to see with all the pieces flying around every day. But I’m convinced that we’re currently living through the beginning of groundbreaking changes that will forever change how we think about and use computers. The advent of low power CPU processors in non-PC devices, combined with broadband internet conections (wired and wireless), GPS technology, the massive deployment of virtualization technologies with cloud computing and the uprise of new OS platforms like Android, Apple iPhone OS and linux in every new incarnations, the technology world will never be the same.
Sun(now Oracle), Microsoft, Intel, Cisco – they all live in the middle of this storm and are struggling to find their new roles in this changed world.
By the time we’ve pieced all the pieces together, we’ll live in a world that is submerged in technology. Not one, but many computing devices will surround the average city dweller in the western world. A couple of years ago this was called ubiquitous computing, but it has become more than that. The PC will build the backbone of this media rich, always on, always connected world. Data will migrate with people wherever they go. Interestingly this revolution isn’t brought upon us by big brother, but by the willing consumer who perceives benefits in using all this technology at the price of giving up of virtues perceived of lesser value – like privacy. Only time will tell if this is the right trade-off.
Technology is continuing to become commodetized. Yesterday’s Woot (www.woot.com) had an Android Tablet up for grabs for $80! HP today advertises its latest laptop computer with i3, 4GB RAM, 320GB HD, a 15.6″ screen and Windows 7 (64-bit) for $519.
Fivehundred dollars! Who is still making money at these price points? But in technology there’s no turning back. The only way to survive is to out innovate the competition – to get ahead of the storm front, get out into the clear and start setting the pace, instead of following the competition.
That’s one of the reasons why you see Intel still pushing MeGoo (I think soon to be gone), HP its Tablet with proprietary WebOS, and Microsoft its windows phone.
Agreeing to one platform would admit failure and leave the big players in one pond with the only differentiating factor being price – a battle nobody wants to fight for long. Instead everybody prefers to push their own standards for as long as they can – even at the risk of the bigger downside of loosing all of the investment. The potential rewards are tremendous – just ask Apple.
Until the dust settles on this batttle, brace for a lot of churn!
And the possibilities are literally endless: we’re only seeing the beginning of social networking on the internet, cars only start to get IP connections, air traffic control is shifting to new technology, databases slowly migrate to electronic forms (i.e. healthcare), and of course the regulatory system along with the governments are struggling to make sense of all the changes. In all this there are fortunes to be made and lost on the way.
Bill Gates, who was for some time the richest man in the world has made his fortune within 25 years. He wasn’t able to hold on very long to stay there (a Mexican telecom tycoon holds currently this title), but the next technology wave will produce the next wealth leader. The next Microsoft won’t be Microsoft – or Cisco, or Intel. The revolution continues and the pace is accelerating – sit back and enjoy – but don’t forget to breathe!
